Gas sector on the edge of the ditch, danger of disaster
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Gas sector on the edge of the ditch, danger of disaster
With the country's gas sector on the brink, the crisis could take a more dire shape. Especially by the year 2026, many people are looking at the threat of catastrophe. There are not many options available to avert disaster, including pipeline gas from Bhola.
Energy experts consider increasing LNG imports to be a dangerous option. As the skyrocketing price is a barrier, there is no scope to increase the amount of import at will. A maximum daily import of 900 million is possible with two FSRUs. A new FSRU will take at least 18 months after finalizing the tender. In other words, there is no way to increase LNG imports till 2026, even excluding the price issue.
Sylhet gas field company is getting gas per cubic meter for Tk 1, the cost of importing the same amount of gas (LNG) is Tk 71. In other words, if imported, the price is 70 times higher, Bangladeshi consumers are not in a position to pay that price.
According to Petrobangla sources, the rate of 1 taka from the state-owned company Sylhet Gas Field Company Limited, 1.25 taka from Bangladesh Gas Field Company, and 4 taka from Bapex. The average price for the combination of gas purchased from multinational companies Chevron Bangladesh and Tallo stands at Tk 6.07 per cubic meter. About 2000 million cubic feet of gas is available daily from these domestic sources. 900 million gas supply from LNG imports. After one-third import, the average price increased from Tk 6.06 to Tk 24.38.
According to Petrobangla sources, the average price of imported gas in the fiscal year 2023-24 is Tk 24.38. And the average selling price of gas was 22.87 taka. Due to this, Petrobangla lost 1.56 taka per cubic meter. In the financial year 2023-24, the price of LNG brought from the spot market fell to 65 taka, which has to be bought for 71 taka in August (2024).
At a time when one-third is reluctant to import, domestic gas fields are running out of reserves, resulting in a steady decline in production. At one time, 2,800 million cubic feet of gas was available daily from domestic gas fields, on November 5, 1972 million cubic feet were produced.
The biggest concern is that Bibiana, the country's largest gas field, is running out of reserves. 50 percent of the domestic supply is coming from that gas field. At one time, 1,350 million cubic feet of gas was produced, but on November 5, only 990 million cubic feet were found. The gas field may run out of reserves by 2026. If the apprehensions come true, the domestic source of gas will decrease by 1000 million. If that amount of gas is imported in excess, the ratio of 6.07 taka will be reduced to half, and the ratio of 71 taka will be doubled.
Petrobangla estimates that the country's gas demand will exceed 4,500 million Cubic feet in the fiscal year 2026-27. Although some want to say that the actual demand for gas is like 4,500. Demand is being understated as a strategy to understate the deficit.
Energy expert Dr. Ijaz Hossain told Barta24.com that he supports the import of LNG, but it should be limited. If we want to provide uninterrupted power supply then the import cost in this sector will be 24 billion dollars. Which is very complicated for our economy. Production is declining as our domestic gas fields are depleting. If we want to maintain the current production capacity of 2000 million cubic feet then at least 10 exploratory wells should be drilled annually.
He said that in 2023, the cost of importing gas by 20 percent will be 22 taka. In 2030, if the import is 50 percent, the price (cubic meter) will be 38 taka. And if 80 percent import is to be done, then the average price will be like 55 rupees. Therefore, there is no alternative to intensify domestic gas production and exploration activities.
Primary energy expert Maqbul E Elahi Chowdhury told Barta24.com, I think the power sector is on the brink of something bigger than just coal. A long period of accumulated laxity has created this situation today. This situation has arisen due to lack of proper focus on domestic oil and gas exploration. Without electricity, life is stagnant, and to provide electricity, fuel is needed. But it cannot be handled by importing LNG.
What are the possibilities in front of Bangladesh?
In response to such questions, Maqbul E Elahi Chowdhury said, digging new wells very quickly, renovating old wells and increasing production. Bibiana wells are producing up to 70 million, with over 10 to 25 million supplies coming from the Rashidpur and Titas gas field wells.
Another task is to stop gas theft. If the theft of one Titas gas is stopped, it is possible to generate 1000 megawatts of electricity with that gas. 3 thousand million cubic feet of gas is being supplied daily. About 8 percent of this is system loss, that is, about 240 million cubic feet of gas is being stolen. Although it is normal to have some technical losses. But 8 percent is not acceptable at all. A maximum of 2 percent system loss can be considered.
Amjad Hossain, former director of Shahbazpur gas field evaluation and development project and former managing director of Bapex, told Barta24.com, "I don't think Bibiana will be closed suddenly." Once producing 1,350 million cubic feet, now it is steadily falling below 1,000. No information is openly given by any party about Bibiana reserves.
According to Petrobangla's latest annual report (2022-23), remaining reserves in July 2023 show 134 BCF. It was then said that Bibiana reserves could increase by 1 TCF. 16 months (485 days) have passed since then daily average remaining reserves have fallen below 600 as FF is extracting gas. 600 days in simple numbers. But that is never possible in case of gas, sudden water and sand can stop the production.
Former MD Amjad Hossain said, I think the initiative should be taken to build a pipe line from Bhola. At the same time, the way Indonesia brings gas from the islands by tanker should be used. Sangu will take it to the platform by tanker and inject it. Gas will be connected to the grid through pipelines using Sangu infrastructure. We need these tankers, later when we get gas in Katubdia and Shallow, the tankers will be used to bring them.
Bhola-Khulna (Via Barishal) pipeline will cost about 7 thousand crore taka. There is a debate whether the pipeline will raise that money or not! In response to such a question, he said, I think there is at least 5 TCF (trillion cubic feet) of gas in Bhola, all the wells drilled in that area have found gas. The distance from Bhola East to Bhola North is 40 km. Gas was found there. As many wells as I did in Hatia Trap, there was no miss, gas was found at Muladi, Begumganj, Sundalpur, Bhola, Sangu. It will be the largest reserve after Bibiana.
Regarding the proven reserves of Bhola, he said, when the Titas gas field was announced in 1967, the reserves were only 1 TCF, now it is said to be 7 TCF. Similarly, the Bibiana gas field took off with 2 TCF, gradually increasing reserves. It is not possible to tell the actual reserves until the gas field is dead.
Cab senior vice president and energy advisor. M Shamsul Alam told Barta24.com, warnings have been given about Bibiana for a long time. By 2026, its production may collapse. But that warning was not heeded. How many tasks need to be done on an urgent basis. Meanwhile arrangements should be made to bring Bhola gas. There is 1 tcf of gas in the roof and gas needs to be brought from there.
Besides, he said that it is impossible to keep the supply normal with imported gas. The economy of Bangladesh is not in a position to pay the price that will be charged if it is imported. Fuel versatility is needed, I think there will be a big change in electric vehicles in five to six years. That's how planning is needed.
Where is the barrier to bring gas to the ground?
150 km pipeline is needed to take Khulna from Bhola to Barishal. It has been estimated to cost about 7 to 8 thousand crore taka. How will the cost of the pipeline rise if the gas reserves are not high? Lenders will ask for his assurance even if he wants to get a loan. In 2004, when the Asian Development Bank asked for a guarantee for the construction of the pipeline, the project collapsed, said Maqbool E-Elahi Choudhury.
When the pipeline is blocked for Tk 7000 crore, importing one cargo of LNG costs Tk. 649 crore (August tender). Which is equal to 1 day demand of the country (3000 million).
2 gas fields have been discovered in Dwip District Bhola. 9 wells have been drilled there, which have a daily production capacity of 190 million cubic feet. But due to lack of demand, only 75 million cubic feet (November 6) has been extracted. Petrobangla is working to drill 15 more wells there.
Chairman of Petrobangla Janendra Nath Sarkar told Barta24.com that it is known to everyone that extraction of gas from wells will end at some point. There is nothing for anyone to do. Now the question is what we are doing about the amount of gas that will be reduced from Bibiana. By 2025 we will increase production by 600 million by drilling 50 wells. 190 million production has already increased by drilling 16 wells. Besides, the project of digging 100 more wells has been taken up.
In these matters, there is great potential for obtaining gas outside and in deep sea and mountain areas. Tenders have been called for offshore gas extraction, which will take 8 to 12 years even if gas is found there. And the work of formulating model PSC (Production Sharing Agreement) for calling for tenders in hilly areas is in progress. Although it is considered certain to get gas from these potential sources, it is too late to add that gas to the system. For that reason, to deal with the period of 2027 and 2028, quick action must be taken now. If not, the people concerned are seeing danger for the country's economy.
