The Arakan Army has taken up arms to ensure the interests of the Rakhine people and has formed an alternative administrative structure by taking local power under their control. In addition to the armed struggle, it is carrying out various important tasks such as health, administration, education and reconstruction.
After the apparent occupation of Rakhine, the Arakan Army has expressed interest in resolving the current situation politically and therefore, they have kept the door open for talks in accordance with the policy of finding a political solution to political problems. If the Myanmar junta does not resolve this crisis politically, the situation is likely to become more complicated. If it tries to deal with this situation militarily, there is a risk of further destruction and humanitarian disaster in Rakhine. As a result, the security of the Bangladesh-Myanmar border will be disrupted. If the situation in Rakhine deteriorates, new Rohingya infiltration and a humanitarian crisis in Rakhine may arise.
Rakhine State is very important in geostrategic and economic terms. The Myanmar junta is currently planning a massive naval and land offensive in coastal areas to retake Rakhine State from the Arakan Army, including deploying warships, massing troops on the ground, and launching airstrikes. If the junta does not resolve the crisis politically, it could escalate into a full-scale, protracted conflict, resulting in significant casualties and humanitarian crises. The Myanmar Air Force received six Su-30 SME fighter jets, an upgraded version of the Sukhoi Su-300, from Russia on January 10. The Myanmar junta is preparing to bolster its air capabilities to counter the insurgents. The junta has also changed its tactics and is using drones and jammers, built with the help of China and Russia, to attack the insurgents. The Myanmar junta could use these fighter jets to weaken the Arakan Army, and could also launch drone strikes to destroy Arakan Army camps. If these are used against the Arakan Army in Rakhine, the intensity of the conflict will increase and it will turn into a long-term war. If the war starts in Rakhine, Bangladesh will face several problems. If the Myanmar army cannot survive the attack, the Arakan Army members may also enter Bangladesh. Before this, the members of the Myanmar Border Guard Force had not survived the attack of the Arakan Army and fled to Bangladesh. They were sent back to Myanmar through diplomatic negotiations. If the Arakan Army members enter Bangladesh due to the Myanmar Army's counterattack, it will create complications in sending them back. If the attack intensifies, there is a possibility of new Rohingya infiltration. Considering the situation in the coming days, Bangladesh must prepare now. For this, Bangladesh must be ready to deploy the BGB, Coast Guard and army to ensure strict security on the Myanmar border. It must maintain diplomatic contact with the Myanmar government so that Bangladesh is not affected by the internal conflict in Myanmar.
In addition, discussions should be initiated with international organizations including the Red Cross so that they can take appropriate measures in Rakhine considering the situation. Bangladesh is also under security and other pressures due to the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. In addition to the citizenship and acceptance of the Rohingya, how Bangladesh can establish relations with the Arakan Army has become important. There are allegations that the Arakan Army has been extorting and looting in the Rohingya areas during the ongoing Operation 1027. The military junta has used some Rohingyas against the Arakan Army with military training and weapons. This has had and will continue to have an impact on the development of Rohingya-Rakhine relations. If we are to find a complete solution to the issue of Rohingya citizenship, Bangladesh will also have to maintain relations with the Arakan Army. The Arakan Army is now the dominant force in important issues such as Bangladesh-Myanmar border security, preventing the infiltration of terrorist groups and drug smuggling. The Arakan Army has not yet officially stated its position on the repatriation of the Rohingya. They are clearly saying that this is a political issue, not a military one. They will decide on this issue only after establishing full control in Rakhine. However, armed Rohingya groups supporting the Myanmar army will be identified and eliminated or brought to justice. The Rohingya must also be united on the issue of Rohingya repatriation. The Rohingya inside Bangladesh are divided into various opinions and groups. The Arakan Army is campaigning strongly in the media that the Rohingya are fighting the Myanmar army against them. On the contrary, there is no campaign about why this is happening. This may create problems for the Rohingya to return to Rakhine. On January 16, the High Representative of the Principal Advisor on the Rohingya Issue and Priority Issues, Dr. Khalilur Rahman, visited the Rohingya camp. During his exchange of views with the Rohingya there, he advised them to stay united. Rohingya are still infiltrating Bangladesh from Myanmar and about 60,000 Rohingya have entered Bangladesh in the last one and a half to two years. The Myanmar government is preparing for national elections in Myanmar in 2025 and a census has been started in Myanmar to update the voter list for this election. According to analysts, the 2025 elections are a strategy for the military rulers to retain power. No. ASEAN told the Myanmar junta government on January 19 that it was urgent to restore peace in the country before holding elections amid the ongoing civil war and that planning for elections should not be a priority in the current situation. If elections are held in Rakhine, the Arakan Army will win and establish their rule.
Bangladesh sent a message of congratulations to the junta government as part of its regular diplomatic practice on January 4, 2025, Myanmar's 77th Independence Day. Although Bangladesh maintains good relations with the junta government, it has not yet established contact with the NUG or the Arakan Army. The repatriation of the Rohingya and the Rohingya crisis cannot be resolved without the Arakan Army. Although neighboring China, India and Thailand have not greeted the junta this time, these countries are in contact with the rebel groups in Myanmar to protect their interests. Currently, the Arakan Army is trying to establish diplomatic relations with various countries in addition to protecting foreign investments, businesses and projects in the Rakhine region. The Arakan Army is ready to resolve the ongoing conflict in Myanmar's Rakhine State through political means instead of military action. The Arakan Army said that it will provide the best protection and cooperation to China, India and other foreign investors in the areas under its control. They welcome all foreign investments that help in the development and progress of the Rakhine region. The Arakan Army offered relations with the Bangladesh government in 2022, but Bangladesh could not take advantage of that opportunity. At that time, the Arakan Army contacted Bangladesh and expressed a positive attitude towards the return of the Rohingya to Rakhine. Arakan Army Chief General Toai Mra Naing said that the Arakan Army is ready for any kind of cooperation in the repatriation of the Rohingya. For various reasons, Bangladesh has lagged behind in securing its own interests and is suffering due to not establishing contact and relations with the National Unity Government and the Arakan Army. In the current situation, we need to correct these mistakes and move forward. India and China have met with the Arakan Army delegation to protect their interests. It is not known that Bangladesh has taken any such initiative so far. Bangladesh needs to establish such contact with the Arakan Army. Apart from diplomatic channels, different countries make such contact in various ways for their needs. Bangladesh also needs to establish quick contact with the Arakan Army to protect its own interests and at the same time keep the relationship with the junta going. Keeping in mind the security and national interests of Bangladesh, they need to be implemented through discussions with the Myanmar junta and the Arakan Army. Bangladesh needs to quickly assess the Rakhine situation in the changing context and take a united decision on formulating new policies.
Brig. G. Hasan Md. Shamsuddin, NDC, AFWC, PSC, M.Phil (rtd.), researcher on Myanmar and Rohingya issues.